Due to missing data from official statistics, IfM Bonn has been estimating (since the mid-1990s) the number of enterprises that are about to be transferred to new owners. The present estimation concludes that from 2022 to 2026, about 190,000 companies are due to be handed over. The highest number of handovers is forecast for the business-related services sector and companies in the size category 500,000 to 1 million euros in annual sales. An above-average number of handovers (measured relative to the total number of businesses) is forecast for companies in Bremen and Lower Saxony. We do not expect the Covid-19 pandemic to have a significant effect on the number of transfers according to the current state. In contrast, demographic changes have a more pronounced effect on the overall number of business transfers.
Due to the lack of official statistics on succession, the IfM Bonn began calculating the number of upcoming business successions in the mid-1990s using a specially developed estimation method. Compared with the number of transfers according to business registration statistics, the IfM Bonn's estimation method provides a good picture of the actual number of business successions.